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Analisa Fundamental - page 3

Opportunity in Jasa Marga – Traderology

Jasa Marga Tbk is a company that operates toll roads in Indonesia, I’ve been eyeing on Jasa Marga (JSMR.jk) for quite sometimes now, and I think at current price, the valuation is very attractive to start establish a position in the company.

First of all, JSMR is a State Owned Enterprise (BUMN/ Badan Usaha Milik Negara) of which The Government of Indonesia owns 70% of the shares. One of the positive side of being an SOE, is that the company usually has the privilege for big strategic projects, of which will boost its earnings big time.

this is ownership structure of JSMR
I especially like it when the company is owned by lots of institutions.

As we can see from the picture above, the ownership composition of JSMR is as follow:
70% :     Government of Indonesia
15.92%:  Foreign Investors
8.48%:   Indonesian Institutions
4.11%:    Mutual Funds
1.49%:   Retails/Individual Investors

JSMR is a stock that heavily favored by institutions, and only 1.49% owned by retails, which can tell us that the nature of the business is good. If we look closer to the public shares, we can see that more than half of the public shares are held by foreign investor! with 15.92% foreign vs 14.08% domestic. That actually shows us that JSMR is a favorite picks for foreign and institutional investors. And more over, the company is generating recurring income, that is, the revenue that is predictable, stable, and can be counted on in the future with high degree of certainty, thus this kind of company is usually earned higher valuation in terms of Price to Earning Multiples (PE Ratio).

The Operating Profit is steadily increasing

So is the Equity
JSMR is the market leader that controls 80% of toll road traffic in Indonesia

I like the fact that the operating profit and  equity is increasing year after year, basically, equity is the shareholder net worth. So we can safely say that the company is worth more now than, say, 2011.


What makes it more interesting is because the price has been going down for these 2 years, while the earnings/net income is steadily goes up!

JSMR Price VS Net Income



Currently, JSMR is trading at 4500 – 4600 Range, with Trailing Twelve Months EPS at Rp 253, JSMR is valued at 18x PER, which makes it very cheap in terms of the historical valuation, because the Price to Earning Multiple mean is at 24x – 26x, which translate to target price of Rp 6000 – Rp 6600 or around 30% from current price.

If the fundamental is that good, why the price goes down?
There are 2 negative sentiment that drive the price lower:
1. JSMR – Tirtobumi lawsuit, of which JSMR is about to be penalized Rp 1.24 Trillion for the dispute, but JSMR currently apply for Judicial Review on the case. The case happened on February, so I believe the price has already reflect the case.
2. Right Issue, in my opinion, the right issue is not an issue. Why? Because from what I read from the media, the funding and the share issuance is not that much, so its more of the sentiment than the financial damage, and, the issuance of right is to fund JSMR projects, so it is for the company expansion, if succeed, it will be a sentiment booster.

Ratio of JSMR Right Issue with current price (Theoretical)

This is a post to let you get more familiar with one of Indonesian Public Company, hope this can be useful to enhance your knowledge about the stock, and the market in general, Goodluck.

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Dolar Menguat, Cermati Saham-Saham Berikut

Kurs dolar pagi ini menguat terhadap hampir semua mata uang dunia, demikian juga indeks Dow Jones menguat. Pasar sedang mencermati kemungkinan rencana The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, sehingga terjadi capital outflow besar-besaran.

Dalam situasi yang agak berat, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terkoreksi dalam, peluang tetap ada, namun resiko juga ada , coba perhatikan saham2 :

1. Berbasis ekspor dimana devisanya dalam US dolar (terkecuali ekspor ke amerika serikat, mengingat ada kemungkinan pemberlakuan tarif impor oleh amerika serikat sementara perlu dicermati),

2. Saham-saham yang banyak memiliki hutang dalam bentuk US dollar mungkin sebaiknya dihindari dulu, mengingat jumlah bunga utang dan kerugian selisih kurs akan meningkat

3. Saham-saham dengan basis consumer goods biasanya relatif aman terhadap guncangan dolar,

4. Saham-saham yang banyak melakukan impor ada baiknya dihindari, mengingat kenaikan nilai tukar dolar, akan membuat perusahaan kesulitan dalam pembayaran impor

Mudah-mudahan pembaca lebih jeli dalam memilih saham. Terima kasih

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