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Rekomendasi Saham - page 4


This is my trading journal that I wrote last year, that reflect my psychology after a devastating loss because of my “overconfidence” and inability to be flexible. Since we are approaching November, which is the worst month of the year for Indonesian Equity, I hope this post can help me (or if anybody read this.. us) reflect and do better in our judgement and execution, so we can avoid the trap and the losses


11th August 2015
Since the beginning of June, my portfolio have been sliding significantly downward, and it concerns me because the strategy that I employ so successfully prior year, which net me a hundrend percent plus returns are not working these months, and it backfired on me, and worst of all, I lost all my senses of emotional discipline that I use to value, and that is the cardinal sin of all trading: to let emotion controls the decision making, which kept me from cutting the losses and give way to hoping that it might bounce back, of which it goes straight down day after day
I made some research and observations on the current condition, and this is my personal take on the situation:

    The reason of this rule is that when the market is going downward, that usually means funds are outflowing the market, and there’s simply no much demand for the particular stocks, and it is really risky because the bounce might be so little that we cant even make a decent profit out of it while the risk is enormous! One very big flaw of the OBB Strategy is that it doesnt include when to stop the bleeding, because it kept on averaging down until one minor rally then we gradually reduce the position, and one thing that I must remember is BIG POSITION IS TO HOLD SHORT TERM! IF IT GOES UP OR GOES DOWN, GET OUT AND DONT BE FUCKING GREEDY! Even if it just broke even, if we are holding large position, JUST GET OUT! We can still live and trade for another day, but if we are sucked in the downward spiral, we are losing big time. And good trader cant afford to lose big bucks. Stop the bleeding and continue to look for opportunity another day.
    Trader can’t get killed if they got a very solid defense, and only after they manage to survive, they can prosper. My fault at current market is a failure of conducting emotional control which resulting I bought heavily on stocks that are not performing well, might be because of overconfidence that the OBB Strategy has served me very well during sideways period, but the impact is severe because I am heavily exposed on down market and I dont know my stop loss point by using this strategy. So one of the wisdom of being a good trader is to KNOW WHAT STRATEGY TO APLLY ON WHAT TYPE OF MARKET. And if the strategy is out of sync with the market, the best thing to do is to play a good defense! Trade smaller, trade smaller, And avoid using margin.. if possible, dont use all the cash because the should be preserved for another battle.KEEP IT SIMPLE
    Successful trading, in essence, is the same as successful diet. It is simple but people often complicate things. For successful diet, it is: eat less, exercise more. For successful trading it is: preserve the capital, play a good defense, look for consistency, and look for homerun when the time comes. But as simple as it may seem, this is not easy. In fact, this is hard as hell because we have to keep our emotional balance in check all the time.
    If the trade goes against us, and if we sense something is wrong about the movement of the stocks, and if we feel bad about the position, it is time to REDUCE the position to the level where we are more comfortable with. If we can not control our emotional balance, it might ruin our objectivity of analysis and decision making. Anyhow, the impact will be much worse than if we just reduce the position at the point where we feel uncomfortable with the position.PRESERVE CASH! TRADE ONLY WHEN THE ODDS ARE IN OUR FAVOUR
    The early days when I start to use my OBB Strategy, that I always preserve cash and only use it when I see big opportunity, and if the stocks are not OBB, then I wont touch the margin and the stop loss would be tight. And by using this strategy, my portfolio grew significantly. One thing that makes me lose the momentum is when I fail to cut loss at the point where I shouldve cut, and I kept on waiting for the price to bounce back, of which it didnt and it really cost me a lot. So actually the message is the same, if uncomfortable, get out! Reduce the position on the way down, dont be stubborn, and dont be hopeful.

    The problem nowadays is that when the market broke down, there are a lot of stocks that OBB, but the mind should be able to resist such temptation and know when NOT to use the strategy. If we use it, and it kept on moving against us, and there are lots of other stocks that OBB and the macro conditions are terrible, then its time to stay aside and hold cash.

    On May, I’ve noticed the warning signs that the market would not be in a good shape, because crisis in several countries and domestically, our new government is a dissappointment, from new policies that lead to uncertainty economic climate, to their incapabiliy to spend the promised budget on time, and most importantly, the earning of companies is showing signs of slowing down, of which makes the market to slump down. But I also have to took the blame for my action because at the time, what I see is “opportunity” because a lot of stocks are OBB, which turns out to be a TRAP! I indiscriminately treat all OBB as the same, which is an ERROR IN A VERY EPIC SCALE! And now I learned my lesson that not all OBB are the same, and if we are wrong, just reduce and reduce and get out! Dont be stubborn to wait, because waiting is really expensive at this kind of market.
    Actually this point is more or less alike with the point above, but since this is really important so I want to emphasize it again. If future earnings suddenly become uncertain and a lot of miss projection, added by unstable currency and macro economic, then that is the time to reduce reduce reduce and stop! If there are any tempting opportunity, be sure not to use MARGIN. Because from my experience, to time the market bottom during a down market is severely costly! So if I am tempted, then what I have to do is use a fraction of equity to buy, and if the price action isnt good, CUT LOSS AND DONT TRY TO AVERAGE DOWN! Remember: during a down market, average down is costly!
    The larger the decline in a shorter term, the better opportunity it is, for instance if the stock decline 30% in 3 days while the previous earning trend is still upward, then it is the time to start buying. But if the decline has been steady for several weeks and it keep goes down steadily, then it is not a good opportunity to buy, and this could be a very dangerous trap!
    Theoritically, people are not encouraged to do average down, and that averaging down is a very risky thing to do, especially in a downtrend market, which is true and is happening to me, but my personal strategy involves heavily on the act of average down, as I will pyramid it, to sell the margin position in the first rally. So what I need to do is to manage my loss if it goes really strongly against me and if my equity drawdown touch 20%, then I have to be super discipline to start reducing my position, remember: THIS IS A MUST! Because it happens over and over again to my portfolio, so I have to change my mindset about this. REDUCING MEANS TO FIGHT FOR ANOTHER DAY, DONT FORCE A TRADE, BECAUSE TRADING WITH IMBALANCE EMOTION IS REALLY REALLY COSTLY!
    My fault is also to rush again after I cut my losses, and want to “revenge” the market and take back the losses, but this is simply counter-productive, because if the drawdown reach 20% of the portfolio, it means my stock selection has been faulty, or the market condition is really bad. Of which I shouldn’t enter any more trade. This is the time to sit back and relax, and if I do have the urge to trade, TRADE SMALLER! This period is not the time to make money, it is time to build confidence.REMEMBER THE T+5 RULES
    One of the advantage of this rules is that it gives us the objectivity to think clearly. If the position is against us, then it is the best time to execute this rules, because we might not be able to sell, then sometimes we must “force” the sale

    I think this is my observations about things that is happening these couple of months. It is a very very expensive lesson indeed but I made a vow not to make any of these classic mistakes ever again, remember: BEING WRONG IS ACCEPTABLE, BUT STAYING WRONG IS NOT, Goodluck.

    Thanks a million, this journal is written by

Opportunity in Jasa Marga – Traderology

Jasa Marga Tbk is a company that operates toll roads in Indonesia, I’ve been eyeing on Jasa Marga (JSMR.jk) for quite sometimes now, and I think at current price, the valuation is very attractive to start establish a position in the company.

First of all, JSMR is a State Owned Enterprise (BUMN/ Badan Usaha Milik Negara) of which The Government of Indonesia owns 70% of the shares. One of the positive side of being an SOE, is that the company usually has the privilege for big strategic projects, of which will boost its earnings big time.

this is ownership structure of JSMR
I especially like it when the company is owned by lots of institutions.

As we can see from the picture above, the ownership composition of JSMR is as follow:
70% :     Government of Indonesia
15.92%:  Foreign Investors
8.48%:   Indonesian Institutions
4.11%:    Mutual Funds
1.49%:   Retails/Individual Investors

JSMR is a stock that heavily favored by institutions, and only 1.49% owned by retails, which can tell us that the nature of the business is good. If we look closer to the public shares, we can see that more than half of the public shares are held by foreign investor! with 15.92% foreign vs 14.08% domestic. That actually shows us that JSMR is a favorite picks for foreign and institutional investors. And more over, the company is generating recurring income, that is, the revenue that is predictable, stable, and can be counted on in the future with high degree of certainty, thus this kind of company is usually earned higher valuation in terms of Price to Earning Multiples (PE Ratio).

The Operating Profit is steadily increasing

So is the Equity
JSMR is the market leader that controls 80% of toll road traffic in Indonesia

I like the fact that the operating profit and  equity is increasing year after year, basically, equity is the shareholder net worth. So we can safely say that the company is worth more now than, say, 2011.


What makes it more interesting is because the price has been going down for these 2 years, while the earnings/net income is steadily goes up!

JSMR Price VS Net Income



Currently, JSMR is trading at 4500 – 4600 Range, with Trailing Twelve Months EPS at Rp 253, JSMR is valued at 18x PER, which makes it very cheap in terms of the historical valuation, because the Price to Earning Multiple mean is at 24x – 26x, which translate to target price of Rp 6000 – Rp 6600 or around 30% from current price.

If the fundamental is that good, why the price goes down?
There are 2 negative sentiment that drive the price lower:
1. JSMR – Tirtobumi lawsuit, of which JSMR is about to be penalized Rp 1.24 Trillion for the dispute, but JSMR currently apply for Judicial Review on the case. The case happened on February, so I believe the price has already reflect the case.
2. Right Issue, in my opinion, the right issue is not an issue. Why? Because from what I read from the media, the funding and the share issuance is not that much, so its more of the sentiment than the financial damage, and, the issuance of right is to fund JSMR projects, so it is for the company expansion, if succeed, it will be a sentiment booster.

Ratio of JSMR Right Issue with current price (Theoretical)

This is a post to let you get more familiar with one of Indonesian Public Company, hope this can be useful to enhance your knowledge about the stock, and the market in general, Goodluck.

Article and Research by


Dolar Menguat, Cermati Saham-Saham Berikut

Kurs dolar pagi ini menguat terhadap hampir semua mata uang dunia, demikian juga indeks Dow Jones menguat. Pasar sedang mencermati kemungkinan rencana The Fed menaikkan suku bunga, sehingga terjadi capital outflow besar-besaran.

Dalam situasi yang agak berat, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan terkoreksi dalam, peluang tetap ada, namun resiko juga ada , coba perhatikan saham2 :

1. Berbasis ekspor dimana devisanya dalam US dolar (terkecuali ekspor ke amerika serikat, mengingat ada kemungkinan pemberlakuan tarif impor oleh amerika serikat sementara perlu dicermati),

2. Saham-saham yang banyak memiliki hutang dalam bentuk US dollar mungkin sebaiknya dihindari dulu, mengingat jumlah bunga utang dan kerugian selisih kurs akan meningkat

3. Saham-saham dengan basis consumer goods biasanya relatif aman terhadap guncangan dolar,

4. Saham-saham yang banyak melakukan impor ada baiknya dihindari, mengingat kenaikan nilai tukar dolar, akan membuat perusahaan kesulitan dalam pembayaran impor

Mudah-mudahan pembaca lebih jeli dalam memilih saham. Terima kasih

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